基于Copula 函数的边坡可靠度高效分析方法

将Copula函数与高效蒙特卡洛方法结合,提出了含相关随机变量的边坡可靠度高效分析方法。以两个岩质边坡稳定性问题为例验证了所提方法的有效性。结果表明,该方法相比于直接蒙特卡洛方法在保证边坡失效概率的准确性的同时计算效率更高。Copula函数可以构造出具有不同相关结构的岩土体参数的联合概率分布,与高效蒙特卡洛方法(即蒙特卡洛重要抽样方法和子集模拟)结合能高效地处理含多种相关随机变量的边坡可靠度计算问题,相比于现行的Nataf变换方法结果更能体现岩土边坡真实稳定性。此外,该方法也能高效地计算含有复杂的隐式功能函数的边坡可靠度,研究成果拓展了高效蒙特卡洛方法在边坡可靠度分析中的应用。     

拖拉机动量飞轮主动防侧翻控制与模型试验研究

针对拖拉机侧翻致死致伤事故仍时有发生的问题，基于旋转刚体加速时的反向施矩原理，以反作用动量飞轮为执行元件，提出了从主动安全角度解决拖拉机侧翻问题的研究方法。通过构建拖拉机动力学系统数学模型，解析了整机侧翻行为的动态演变机理。为保证拖拉机主体结构的完整性，将动量飞轮置于拖拉机前部，取代传统静态配重的同时可主动提供防侧翻力矩。应用Matlab/Simulink软件，对反作用飞轮的回稳过程进行了基于PID控制的有效性仿真分析，同时设计并搭建了比例模型试验平台，对主动施矩飞轮的回稳控制效果进行了试验验证。结果表明，装备飞轮的拖拉机与无控制组对比，在一次试验中可多次实现整机的防侧翻控制，使整机防侧翻性能得到明显改善，且不同行驶工况下的试验数据与仿真结果的相关性较强，充分验证了本文拖拉机侧翻动力学模型的有效性。     

水流作用下临水岸坡稳定性计算模型

河流崩岸是我国堤防安全面临的重大问题,汛期前后崩岸诱发大量的滑体进入河道,影响航运,给沿岸人民正常生产生活带来重大影响。针对水流作用下临水岸坡失稳问题,综合考虑坡表静水压力、内部孔隙水压力、边坡几何形状等因素的影响,构建了楔形岸坡稳定计算模型,并结合长江干流芙蓉大堤段崩岸实例,分析了各因素对岸坡稳定的作用。结果表明,坡表与地下水位升降及二者之差,对岸坡稳定影响较大,且水流的淘刷深度也直接影响着岸坡整体稳定。     

不同植被措施下排土场边坡细沟发育时空特征

为明确不同恢复年限植被措施对煤矿排土场边坡水土流失的防治效应,采用样方调查法,以内蒙古准格尔旗永利煤矿矿区排土场边坡为研究对象,以裸露边坡(CK)为对照,研究不同恢复年限(1a、3a、5 a)的沙柳方格+沙棘+沙打旺(SHA)和沙柳方格+沙打旺(SA)2种措施对细沟发育的影响。结果表明:(1)1a时CK、SHA与SA措施细沟宽度均集中分布在4～8 cm,细沟深度均集中分布在2～4 cm;3 a时CK、SHA与SA措施细沟宽度则集中分布在4～8 cm、8～12 cm、4～8 cm,细沟深度均集中分布在4～6 cm;5 a时CK与SHA措施细沟宽度均集中分布在8～12 cm,而细沟深度则集中分布在4～6 cm和8～14 cm;(2)CK(1～5 a)、SHA措施(1～5 a)和SA措施(1～3 a)的细沟平均宽分别为7.57～11.35 cm、7.58～13.31 cm和5.57～6.14 cm,细沟平均深分别为3.38～6.23 cm、4.19～10.34 cm、2.59～4.24 cm,三者的细沟平均宽深比分别为2.39、2.12和2.05,平均细沟密度分别为1.52～5.25 m·m–2、1.42～1.68 m·m–2和1.88～2.25 m·m–2;(3)1 a时CK、SHA和SA措施的细沟宽深比随坡长变化幅度较大,随着恢复年限增加,宽深比则呈下降趋势,CK、SHA措施和SA措施的细沟密度和细沟侵蚀量均随坡长增加呈增大趋势;(4)与CK相比,1 a时SHA和SA措施边坡细沟侵蚀模数分别减小25.0%和25.86%,两种措施减蚀效果差别不大,而3 a时则分别减小了61.73%和35.31%,SHA措施减蚀效果显著增强。研究结果可以为矿区排土场边坡的植被合理布设提供科学依据与理论指导。     

土地规模化经营能否促进农业社会化服务获取?——基于全国3类农户样本的实证分析

土地流转和农业社会化服务是经营规模化和服务规模化的根本途径,研究二者关系对农业供给侧结构性改革、农业现代化发展乃至乡村振兴具有重要意义。基于第二期"全国新型农业经营主体发展指数调查"数据,运用负二项回归模型实证分析土地流转及转入不同特征土地对普通农户、专业大户和家庭农场农业社会化服务获取的影响。结果表明,单纯的土地转入对不同类型农户农业社会化服务获取均不具有显著影响。但如果转入土地有利于规模化经营、农业基础设施较好,则能显著促进社会化服务获取。另外,农户经营能力越强,对不同类型社会化服务的应用程度也越高。因此,政府应推动更有效率的土地流转,实现农业适度规模经营;加强农业社会化服务供给,提升农户生产经营效率;强化经营主体培训,增强联结带动能力。     

土壤管理措施对坡耕地侵蚀退化耕层的恢复作用

【目的】紫色土坡耕地土壤侵蚀严重,研究土壤管理措施对不同侵蚀程度坡耕地耕层侵蚀恢复作用,为紫色土坡耕地耕层质量调控和坡耕地持续利用提供理论及实践依据。【方法】采用单因素方差分析（One-way ANOVA）检验各指标的差异显著性,研究不施肥（CK）、施化肥（F）、施生物炭+化肥（BF）3种土壤管理措施对侵蚀0 cm（S_-0）、侵蚀5 cm（S_-5）、侵蚀10 cm（S_-10）、侵蚀15 cm（S_-15）、侵蚀20 cm（S_-20） 5个不同侵蚀程度坡耕地耕层土壤属性的恢复作用。【结果】（1）随侵蚀程度增加,土壤砂粒含量由38.1%—42.4%逐渐增至44.2%—46.4%,土壤黏粒含量由12.6%—14.8%逐渐减少至9.6%—11.0%;与S_-0、S_-5、S_-10相比,S_-15、S_-20土壤容重显著增大;S_-10侵蚀程度下,土壤抗剪强度最大,在8.71—9.56 kg·cm^-2之间;F、BF处理下S_-15侵蚀程度的土壤稳定入渗率、平均入渗率降幅均最大。（2）不同管理措施下坡耕地耕层土壤属性差异显著,BF处理下土壤砂粒含量小、黏粒含量最大,0—10 cm、10—20 cm土层土壤容重显著低于CK（P<0.05）,土壤总孔隙度、毛管孔隙度均显著高于CK、F处理;BF处理下土壤初始入渗率、稳定入渗率、平均入渗率均最大,CK处理最小;与CK处理相比,BF处理土壤抗剪强度显著增大。（3）随侵蚀程度增加,土壤可蚀性K值显著下降,与S_-0相比,S_-20侵蚀程度下土壤可蚀性K值下降0.1960%—0.2192%;BF处理下土壤可蚀性K值最大,F处理次之,CK最小;S_-10侵蚀程度下F、BF处理的K值均较CK增加幅度最大,分别增加0.0684%、0.1404%。【结论】施加生物炭+化肥在改善土壤物质组成、结构特征、提高土壤蓄渗性能等方面较单施化肥效果更为显著,可有效减轻紫色土坡耕地耕层土壤侵蚀,对侵蚀10 cm条件下的坡耕地耕作层（0—20 cm）土壤的改良效果最佳。     

不同自然通风方式对日光温室性能的影响

为探究不同自然通风方式下日光温室室内环境因子的变化规律,提高日光温室自然通风效率,设计2种不同自然通风方式:后坡整体开窗式和后坡间隔开窗式。将分别采用后坡整体开窗式和后坡间隔开窗式通风方式的温室,依次记为G1、G2,并以传统顶通风式日光温室(G3)为对照,对上述3座采用不同自然通风方式的温室内部环境和作物生长状况进行了研究。结果表明:晴天白天,G1、G2的室内光照强度分别比G3提高了26.34%和10.16%,G1、G2、G3平均气温分别为33.7、33.8、34.8℃,平均相对湿度分别为47.15%、47.21%、44.03%,风速折减率分别为0.80、0.74、0.90;晴天13:00,G1、G2的植物冠层气温分布呈现南高北低,而G3的呈南低北高分布。G1、G2内的番茄产量分别比G3提高了19.54%、6.90%。综上,后坡整体开窗式表现最优。     

Innovation and gendered negotiations: Insights from six small‐scale fishing communities

There has so far been limited investigation into gender in relation to innovation in fisheries. Therefore, this study investigates how gender relations shape the capacity and motivation of different individuals in fishing communities to innovate. We compare six fishing communities in Cambodia, the Philippines and the Solomon Islands. Our findings suggest that gendered negotiations mediate the capacity to innovate but that wider structural constraints are important constraints for both men and women. Our findings show that men's and women's capacity to innovate is strongly mediated by the behaviour of their marriage partner. Consequently, we argue that gender research from a social relational perspective has an important contribution to make in understanding poor fishing communities where new ways of doing things or new technologies are being promoted.     

Effect of environmental conditions on the seasonal and inter‐annual variability of small pelagic fish abundance off North‐West Africa: The case of both Senegalese sardinella

The objective of this study was to assess the effect of environmental variations on the abundance of Sardinella aurita and Sardinella maderensis in Senegalese waters in the upwelling system. Monthly data indicating the abundance of sardinella were first estimated from commercial statistics, using Generalized Linear Model from 1966 to 2011. Abundance indices (AIs) were then compared with environmental indices, at the local scale, a Coastal Upwelling Index (CUI) and a coastal Sea Surface Temperature (SST) index, and on a large scale, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), using correlations and times series analyses. The results showed that the abundance of sardinella is determined by a strong seasonal pattern and inter‐annual fluctuations. The abundance of S. aurita peaked in spring and in autumn, whereas that of S. maderensis peaked in the warm season (July–September). The trend of the sardinella abundance was significantly correlated with the CUI, especially in autumn and spring. Interannual fluctuations of S. maderensis and S. aurita abundance are, respectively, driven by the precocity and the duration of the upwelling season that is attributed to distinct migration patterns. Both sardinella species also respond with a delay of around 4 years to the winter NAO index and the autumn CUI, and the AMO index, respectively, both related to migration patterns. The wide variations in sardinella biomass are caused by variations in environmental conditions, which should be considered in the implementation of an ecosystem‐based approach in sardinella stocks management.     

Linking watershed and microhabitat characteristics: effects on production of Atlantic salmonids (Salmo salar and Salmo trutta)

The spatial scale of environmental factors influencing population dynamics ranges from microhabitat to continental or even global scales. Integration of multiple spatial scales is important in order to understand links between environmental variation and population processes. In the present study, we investigate how multiscale drivers influence the production of stream‐rearing Atlantic salmonids (Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L. and brown trout, Salmo trutta L.) measured in terms of abundance. Variation in juvenile production was studied using data from single‐pass electrofishing surveys (measured as biomass per m²) from nine rivers. These data were combined with habitat data ranging from an important in‐stream microhabitat variable (shelter availability) to properties of the catchment. Variation in productivity within and among rivers was affected by both properties of in‐stream habitat and catchment properties. Shelter availability and the proportion of the catchment consisting of cultivated land and lakes influenced biomass positively, while catchment area had the opposite effect. For a different set of rivers (N = 20), river gradient and catchment area were shown to positively affect the amount of shelter. Finally, the variables identified in the two preceding analysis were included in the analysis of population productivity using catch statistics from 160 rivers. The proportion of cultivated land and lakes, estimated shelter availability were found to have positive effects. In addition, temperature had a positive effect, while river width had a negative effect. This study shows that combining multiple‐scale environmental factors can explain a substantial proportion of variation in population productivity among and within the populations of Atlantic salmonids.